A statistical rugby-league model — NRL, NRLW and State of Origin: try-scorer, goal-kicking and player-points projections, plus NRL & NRLW match markets (head-to-head, line, total) priced to surface value. Educational — not betting advice.
Round 21updated Thu 23 Jul 2026, 05:51PM AEST
Every market where the model rates the best available price as value, ranked by expected value. EV = model win probability × price − 1. Kelly is the fraction of bankroll that maximises long-run growth at that edge (shown halved — safer). Set your bankroll and the Stake column shows the dollar amount. Modest edges show as-is; bigger ones appear only when ✓field — ≥2 other books price it shorter, so the market agrees that book is out of line, not just the model.
96 value bets
| Player▼ | Market▼ | Line▼ | Model▼ | Fair▼ | Best price▼ | Book▼ | EV▼ | Kelly▼ | Stake▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.FogartyManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Player Points | 10 | 51% | 1.96 | 3.35 | SB | +71%✓field | 15.1% | – |
| M.MosesParramatta Eels | Player Points | 6 | 73% | 1.37 | 2.2 | TAB | +61%✓field | 25.3% | – |
| D.BrownNewcastle Knights | Anytime Try | 1 | 26% | 3.8 | 6 | SB | +58%✓field | 5.8% | – |
| C.HessNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 11% | 8.8 | 13 | PB | +48%✓field | 2.0% | – |
| E.RobertsWests Tigers | Anytime Try | 1 | 21% | 4.78 | 7 | SB | +46%✓field | 3.9% | – |
| R.MahoneyNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 18% | 5.57 | 8 | DAB | +43%✓field | 3.1% | – |
| M.TaulagiNorth Queensland Cowboys | 2+ Tries | 2 | 20% | 5.01 | 6.75 | DAB | +34%✓field | 3.0% | – |
| B.TalagiPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 36% | 2.76 | 3.6 | DAB | +31%✓field | 5.9% | – |
| K.PongaNewcastle Knights | Player Points | 12 | 32% | 3.1 | 4 | DAB | +29%✓field | 4.8% | – |
| T.ChesterNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 37% | 2.73 | 3.5 | SB | +28%✓field | 5.6% | – |
| T.PasekaManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Anytime Try | 1 | 10% | 10.35 | 13 | PB | +26%✓field | 1.1% | – |
| I.YeoPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 14% | 7.17 | 9 | DAB | +26%✓field | 1.6% | – |
| J.PurdueNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 35% | 2.87 | 3.6 | SB | +26%✓field | 4.9% | – |
| A.JohnstonSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | 2+ Tries | 2 | 25% | 3.98 | 5 | DAB | +25%✓field | 3.2% | – |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Player Points | 10 | 52% | 1.92 | 2.4 | SB | +25%✓field | 8.9% | – |
| M.MosesParramatta Eels | Player Points | 4 | 89% | 1.13 | 1.4 | TAB | +24% | 30.4% | – |
| L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Player Points | 6 | 90% | 1.11 | 1.38 | DAB | +24% | 31.7% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 12 | 52% | 1.92 | 2.38 | DAB | +24% | 8.6% | – |
| S.WalkerSydney Roosters | Player Points | 8 | 73% | 1.36 | 1.68 | SB | +23% | 17.1% | – |
| F.SharpeNewcastle Knights | Anytime Try | 1 | 32% | 3.17 | 3.9 | LAD | +23% | 3.9% | – |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Player Points | 14 | 22% | 4.65 | 5.7 | SB | +23% | 2.4% | – |
| K.PongaNewcastle Knights | Player Points | 8 | 66% | 1.52 | 1.86 | DAB | +22% | 13.0% | – |
| J.SamraniParramatta Eels | Anytime Try | 1 | 26% | 3.89 | 4.75 | TAB | +22% | 2.9% | – |
| J.FogartyManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Player Points | 6 | 85% | 1.18 | 1.43 | SB | +21% | 24.4% | – |
| L.SmithPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 15% | 6.65 | 8 | DAB | +20% | 1.4% | – |
| M.TaulagiNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 56% | 1.78 | 2.12 | SB | +19% | 8.5% | – |
| J.BulaWests Tigers | Anytime Try | 1 | 39% | 2.54 | 3 | SB | +18% | 4.5% | – |
| S.DrinkwaterNorth Queensland Cowboys | 2+ Tries | 2 | 12% | 8.46 | 10 | DAB | +18% | 1.0% | – |
| S.DrinkwaterNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 45% | 2.25 | 2.65 | SB | +18% | 5.4% | – |
| C.McleanPenrith Panthers | 2+ Tries | 2 | 13% | 7.66 | 9 | DAB | +18% | 1.1% | – |
| B.KellyParramatta Eels | 2+ Tries | 2 | 11% | 9.38 | 11 | DAB | +18% | 0.9% | – |
| F.ManuleleuaNewcastle Knights | Anytime Try | 1 | 17% | 5.95 | 7 | SB | +18% | 1.5% | – |
| B.FermorGold Coast Titans | Anytime Try | 1 | 26% | 3.84 | 4.5 | DAB | +17% | 2.5% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 10 | 68% | 1.47 | 1.73 | DAB | +17% | 11.8% | – |
| B.KellyParramatta Eels | Anytime Try | 1 | 43% | 2.35 | 2.75 | TAB | +17% | 4.8% | – |
| E.SandersCanberra Raiders | Anytime Try | 1 | 23% | 4.3 | 5 | TAB | +17% | 2.1% | – |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Player Points | 8 | 70% | 1.43 | 1.65 | SB | +15% | 11.7% | – |
| K.FlanaganSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 18% | 5.64 | 6.5 | DAB | +15% | 1.4% | – |
| S.WalkerSydney Roosters | Player Points | 18 | 8% | 12.18 | 14 | SB | +15% | 0.6% | – |
| L.GalvinCanterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | Anytime Try | 1 | 26% | 3.92 | 4.5 | DAB | +15% | 2.1% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 16 | 24% | 4.15 | 4.75 | SB | +14% | 1.9% | – |
| T.LoieroMelbourne Storm | Anytime Try | 1 | 10% | 10.49 | 12 | DAB | +14% | 0.6% | – |
| A.JohnstonSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Anytime Try | 1 | 62% | 1.62 | 1.83 | SB | +13% | 8.0% | – |
| K.PongaNewcastle Knights | Player Points | 14 | 20% | 5.06 | 5.7 | SB | +13% | 1.4% | – |
| K.PongaNewcastle Knights | Player Points | 6 | 82% | 1.22 | 1.38 | DAB | +13% | 16.8% | – |
| K.TuilagiParramatta Eels | Anytime Try | 1 | 15% | 6.68 | 7.5 | DAB | +13% | 1.0% | – |
| S.TuruvaWests Tigers | Anytime Try | 1 | 33% | 3.03 | 3.4 | SB | +12% | 2.5% | – |
| C.McleanPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 47% | 2.15 | 2.4 | DAB | +12% | 4.1% | – |
| I.IongiParramatta Eels | Anytime Try | 1 | 29% | 3.46 | 3.85 | DAB | +11% | 2.0% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 8 | 82% | 1.22 | 1.36 | DAB | +11% | 15.6% | – |
| I.Papali'iPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 23% | 4.27 | 4.75 | DAB | +11% | 1.5% | – |
| S.WalkerSydney Roosters | Player Points | 6 | 87% | 1.15 | 1.27 | SB | +11% | 19.7% | – |
| M.CrokerNewcastle Knights | Anytime Try | 1 | 9% | 11.72 | 13 | PB | +10% | 0.4% | – |
| J.WalshManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Anytime Try | 1 | 24% | 4.17 | 4.6 | PB | +10% | 1.4% | – |
| J.Addo-CarrParramatta Eels | Anytime Try | 1 | 40% | 2.5 | 2.75 | TAB | +10% | 2.9% | – |
| P.SamiGold Coast Titans | 2+ Tries | 2 | 16% | 6.36 | 7 | DAB | +10% | 0.8% | – |
| M.MosesParramatta Eels | Anytime Try | 1 | 17% | 5.91 | 6.5 | TAB | +10% | 0.9% | – |
| B.BurnsNorth Queensland Cowboys | 2+ Tries | 2 | 17% | 5.92 | 6.5 | DAB | +10% | 0.9% | – |
| K.KautogaParramatta Eels | Anytime Try | 1 | 16% | 6.18 | 6.75 | SB | +9% | 0.8% | – |
| L.MartinPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 25% | 3.98 | 4.33 | DAB | +9% | 1.3% | – |
| E.StrangeCanberra Raiders | Anytime Try | 1 | 32% | 3.09 | 3.35 | LAD | +8% | 1.7% | – |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Player Points | 16 | 12% | 8.3 | 9 | SB | +8% | 0.5% | – |
| T.MikaeleNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 8% | 12.02 | 13 | PB | +8% | 0.3% | – |
| L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Player Points | 4 | 97% | 1.03 | 1.11 | DAB | +7% | 33.9% | – |
| M.MosesParramatta Eels | Player Points | 2 | 98% | 1.03 | 1.1 | TAB | +7% | 36.2% | – |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Player Points | 6 | 85% | 1.18 | 1.26 | DAB | +7% | 13.7% | – |
| B.BurnsNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 52% | 1.92 | 2.05 | SB | +7% | 3.3% | – |
| P.AlamotiPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 55% | 1.82 | 1.95 | SB | +7% | 3.6% | – |
| M.BarnettWarriors | Anytime Try | 1 | 8% | 12.25 | 13 | DAB | +7% | 0.3% | – |
| C.GuthersonSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 30% | 3.3 | 3.5 | SB | +6% | 1.2% | – |
| D.AtkinsonSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 22% | 4.49 | 4.75 | PB | +6% | 0.8% | – |
| E.TualaCanterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | Anytime Try | 1 | 26% | 3.79 | 4 | TAB | +6% | 0.9% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 18 | 15% | 6.84 | 7.2 | SB | +5% | 0.4% | – |
| K.PongaNewcastle Knights | Player Points | 4 | 93% | 1.08 | 1.13 | DAB | +5% | 19.6% | – |
| J.FogartyManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Player Points | 4 | 95% | 1.06 | 1.11 | SB | +5% | 22.8% | – |
| A.Khan-PereiraWarriors | Anytime Try | 1 | 58% | 1.74 | 1.82 | SB | +5% | 2.9% | – |
| A.HauGold Coast Titans | Anytime Try | 1 | 26% | 3.81 | 4 | DAB | +5% | 0.8% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 6 | 92% | 1.09 | 1.14 | DAB | +5% | 17.0% | – |
| D.MarinerBrisbane Broncos | Anytime Try | 1 | 52% | 1.94 | 2.03 | SB | +5% | 2.3% | – |
| J.KerrSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 9% | 11.45 | 12 | PB | +4% | 0.2% | – |
| M.NawaqanitawaseSydney Roosters | Anytime Try | 1 | 58% | 1.73 | 1.8 | LAD | +4% | 2.6% | – |
| N.MeaneyMelbourne Storm | Anytime Try | 1 | 26% | 3.85 | 4 | TAB | +4% | 0.7% | – |
| P.SamiGold Coast Titans | Anytime Try | 1 | 51% | 1.98 | 2.05 | SB | +4% | 1.8% | – |
| J.HughesMelbourne Storm | Anytime Try | 1 | 24% | 4.11 | 4.25 | TAB | +3% | 0.5% | – |
| S.WalkerSydney Roosters | Player Points | 4 | 96% | 1.05 | 1.08 | TAB | +3% | 20.3% | – |
| D.MarinerBrisbane Broncos | 2+ Tries | 2 | 17% | 6.06 | 6.25 | DAB | +3% | 0.3% | – |
| H.GrantMelbourne Storm | Anytime Try | 1 | 24% | 4.13 | 4.25 | TAB | +3% | 0.4% | – |
| R.GarrickManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Anytime Try | 1 | 34% | 2.98 | 3.05 | SB | +2% | 0.6% | – |
| M.NawaqanitawaseSydney Roosters | 2+ Tries | 2 | 22% | 4.66 | 4.75 | DAB | +2% | 0.3% | – |
| L.HopoateManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Anytime Try | 1 | 35% | 2.89 | 2.95 | SB | +2% | 0.5% | – |
| D.LucasNewcastle Knights | Anytime Try | 1 | 33% | 3.04 | 3.1 | SB | +2% | 0.5% | – |
| B.ScottPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 11% | 8.87 | 9 | SB | +2% | 0.1% | – |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Player Points | 4 | 95% | 1.06 | 1.07 | DAB | +1% | 10.3% | – |
| T.JenkinsPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 51% | 1.96 | 1.98 | LAD | +1% | 0.6% | – |
| J.FogartyManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Player Points | 2 | 99% | 1.01 | 1.02 | TAB | +1% | 24.5% | – |
| A.Khan-PereiraWarriors | 2+ Tries | 2 | 21% | 4.72 | 4.75 | DAB | +1% | 0.1% | – |
Edges this large usually shrink as kickoff nears and the market sharpens. Very large EV can also signal a team-list or name mismatch — sanity-check the lineup. Educational only, not betting advice. 18+. Gamble responsibly.