A statistical NRL model: try-scorer, goal-kicking and player-points projections priced against live multi-bookmaker odds to surface value. Educational — not betting advice.
Every market where the model rates the best available price as value, ranked by expected value. EV = model win probability × price − 1. Kelly is the fraction of bankroll that maximises long-run growth at that edge (shown halved — safer). Set your bankroll and the Stake column shows the dollar amount. Modest edges show as-is; bigger ones appear only when ✓field — ≥2 other books price it shorter, so the market agrees that book is out of line, not just the model.
119 value bets
| Player▼ | Market▼ | Line▼ | Model▼ | Fair▼ | Best price▼ | Book▼ | EV▼ | Kelly▼ | Stake▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.DoueihiWests Tigers | Player Points | 10 | 57% | 1.76 | 3.25 | TAB | +84%✓field | 18.7% | – |
| B.HuntBrisbane Broncos | Anytime Try | 1 | 14% | 7.21 | 10 | TAB | +39%✓field | 2.2% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 14 | 39% | 2.55 | 3.5 | DAB | +37%✓field | 7.4% | – |
| A.JohnstonSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | 3+ Tries | 3 | 14% | 7.37 | 10 | DAB | +36%✓field | 2.0% | – |
| B.BurnsNorth Queensland Cowboys | 2+ Tries | 2 | 19% | 5.17 | 7 | DAB | +35%✓field | 2.9% | – |
| M.TaulagiNorth Queensland Cowboys | 2+ Tries | 2 | 18% | 5.55 | 7.5 | DAB | +35%✓field | 2.7% | – |
| T.ChesterNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 36% | 2.81 | 3.8 | PB | +35%✓field | 6.2% | – |
| L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Player Points | 14 | 31% | 3.2 | 4.3 | SB | +35%✓field | 5.2% | – |
| L.ThompsonCanterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | Anytime Try | 1 | 12% | 8.3 | 11 | DAB | +33%✓field | 1.7% | – |
| D.BrownNewcastle Knights | Anytime Try | 1 | 33% | 3.01 | 4 | PB | +33%✓field | 5.5% | – |
| C.HessNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 9% | 11.43 | 15 | PB | +32%✓field | 1.1% | – |
| L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Player Points | 12 | 46% | 2.16 | 2.85 | SB | +32%✓field | 8.6% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 12 | 54% | 1.84 | 2.38 | DAB | +29%✓field | 10.6% | – |
| E.GulerSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 9% | 11.79 | 15 | PB | +28%✓field | 1.0% | – |
| B.BurnsNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 55% | 1.81 | 2.3 | PB | +27%✓field | 10.5% | – |
| M.KnowlesDolphins | Anytime Try | 1 | 11% | 9.53 | 12 | SB | +26%✓field | 1.2% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 16 | 26% | 3.81 | 4.75 | SB | +25% | 3.3% | – |
| K.MannCanterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | Anytime Try | 1 | 13% | 7.63 | 9.5 | DAB | +24% | 1.4% | – |
| V.HolmesSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 43% | 2.33 | 2.9 | TAB | +24% | 6.4% | – |
| L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Player Points | 10 | 63% | 1.59 | 1.98 | SB | +24% | 12.4% | – |
| P.AlamotiPenrith Panthers | 2+ Tries | 2 | 14% | 7.24 | 9 | DAB | +24% | 1.5% | – |
| S.WalkerSydney Roosters | Player Points | 14 | 29% | 3.48 | 4.3 | SB | +24% | 3.6% | – |
| J.FeledyManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Anytime Try | 1 | 35% | 2.83 | 3.5 | TAB | +24% | 4.7% | – |
| L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Player Points | 16 | 20% | 5.14 | 6.3 | SB | +23% | 2.2% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 10 | 70% | 1.44 | 1.75 | DAB | +22% | 14.6% | – |
| T.PasekaManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Anytime Try | 1 | 10% | 9.86 | 12 | PB | +21% | 1.0% | – |
| S.WalkerSydney Roosters | Player Points | 12 | 43% | 2.32 | 2.8 | SB | +21% | 5.8% | – |
| M.TaulagiNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 54% | 1.86 | 2.25 | LAD | +21% | 8.2% | – |
| C.GuthersonSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 33% | 3 | 3.6 | LAD | +20% | 3.9% | – |
| S.WalkerSydney Roosters | Player Points | 16 | 18% | 5.66 | 6.75 | SB | +19% | 1.7% | – |
| A.JohnstonSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | 2+ Tries | 2 | 36% | 2.76 | 3.3 | DAB | +19% | 4.2% | – |
| P.AlamotiPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 48% | 2.1 | 2.5 | DAB | +19% | 6.4% | – |
| B.TalagiPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 41% | 2.43 | 2.9 | DAB | +19% | 5.0% | – |
| B.TalagiPenrith Panthers | 2+ Tries | 2 | 10% | 10.06 | 12 | DAB | +19% | 0.9% | – |
| D.LucasNewcastle Knights | 2+ Tries | 2 | 13% | 7.99 | 9.5 | DAB | +19% | 1.1% | – |
| D.LucasNewcastle Knights | Anytime Try | 1 | 46% | 2.19 | 2.6 | DAB | +19% | 5.8% | – |
| A.DoueihiWests Tigers | Player Points | 6 | 87% | 1.15 | 1.36 | SB | +18% | 25.6% | – |
| M.MosesParramatta Eels | Player Points | 8 | 62% | 1.61 | 1.9 | TAB | +18% | 10.1% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 18 | 16% | 6.1 | 7.2 | SB | +18% | 1.5% | – |
| Z.LaybuttNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 25% | 4.05 | 4.75 | SB | +17% | 2.3% | – |
| M.KingCanterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | Anytime Try | 1 | 9% | 11.06 | 13 | DAB | +17% | 0.7% | – |
| I.YeoPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 15% | 6.85 | 8 | PB | +17% | 1.2% | – |
| T.Fa'asuamaleuaiGold Coast Titans | Anytime Try | 1 | 13% | 7.76 | 9 | TAB | +16% | 1.0% | – |
| M.NawaqanitawaseSydney Roosters | 3+ Tries | 3 | 12% | 8.6 | 10 | DAB | +16% | 0.9% | – |
| L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Player Points | 8 | 78% | 1.28 | 1.48 | SB | +16% | 16.5% | – |
| J.FogartyManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Player Points | 12 | 35% | 2.85 | 3.3 | SB | +16% | 3.4% | – |
| K.StaggsBrisbane Broncos | Anytime Try | 1 | 39% | 2.59 | 3 | TAB | +16% | 3.9% | – |
| S.WalkerSydney Roosters | Player Points | 10 | 60% | 1.68 | 1.94 | SB | +16% | 8.3% | – |
| M.CrokerNewcastle Knights | Anytime Try | 1 | 11% | 9.5 | 11 | PB | +16% | 0.8% | – |
| L.FainuWests Tigers | Anytime Try | 1 | 11% | 9.51 | 11 | PB | +16% | 0.8% | – |
| H.StewartSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 18% | 5.65 | 6.5 | PB | +15% | 1.4% | – |
| A.JohnstonSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Anytime Try | 1 | 72% | 1.39 | 1.6 | SB | +15% | 12.5% | – |
| J.SalmonCanterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | Anytime Try | 1 | 19% | 5.24 | 6 | SB | +15% | 1.5% | – |
| C.WatsonSydney Roosters | Anytime Try | 1 | 14% | 7.01 | 8 | PB | +14% | 1.0% | – |
| M.FeagaiSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 33% | 3.08 | 3.5 | DAB | +14% | 2.7% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 8 | 83% | 1.2 | 1.36 | DAB | +13% | 17.9% | – |
| K.KoloamatangiSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Anytime Try | 1 | 14% | 7.11 | 8 | TAB | +13% | 0.9% | – |
| R.VolkmanParramatta Eels | Anytime Try | 1 | 20% | 5.08 | 5.7 | SB | +12% | 1.3% | – |
| A.HauGold Coast Titans | Anytime Try | 1 | 26% | 3.86 | 4.33 | DAB | +12% | 1.8% | – |
| S.TuSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 52% | 1.92 | 2.15 | LAD | +12% | 5.2% | – |
| J.FogartyManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Player Points | 10 | 52% | 1.92 | 2.15 | SB | +12% | 5.2% | – |
| J.FogartyManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Player Points | 14 | 22% | 4.65 | 5.2 | SB | +12% | 1.4% | – |
| K.StaggsBrisbane Broncos | 2+ Tries | 2 | 9% | 11.59 | 13 | TAB | +12% | 0.5% | – |
| B.FermorGold Coast Titans | Anytime Try | 1 | 25% | 3.97 | 4.4 | SB | +11% | 1.6% | – |
| K.KautogaParramatta Eels | Anytime Try | 1 | 21% | 4.7 | 5.2 | SB | +11% | 1.3% | – |
| J.CliffordNorth Queensland Cowboys | Player Points | 4 | 88% | 1.14 | 1.26 | DAB | +11% | 20.7% | – |
| D.EganSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 24% | 4.09 | 4.5 | LAD | +10% | 1.4% | – |
| S.TuSt George-Illawarra Dragons | 2+ Tries | 2 | 17% | 5.95 | 6.5 | DAB | +9% | 0.8% | – |
| V.HolmesSt George-Illawarra Dragons | 2+ Tries | 2 | 11% | 9.15 | 10 | TAB | +9% | 0.5% | – |
| M.NawaqanitawaseSydney Roosters | 2+ Tries | 2 | 33% | 3.03 | 3.3 | DAB | +9% | 1.9% | – |
| S.Fa'alogoMelbourne Storm | Player Points | 12 | 24% | 4.14 | 4.5 | TAB | +9% | 1.3% | – |
| T.CouchmanSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 10% | 10.15 | 11 | PB | +9% | 0.4% | – |
| B.TrbojevicManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Anytime Try | 1 | 24% | 4.15 | 4.5 | DAB | +8% | 1.2% | – |
| S.WalkerSydney Roosters | Player Points | 8 | 76% | 1.32 | 1.43 | SB | +8% | 9.4% | – |
| J.RadelSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Anytime Try | 1 | 8% | 12.04 | 13 | DAB | +8% | 0.3% | – |
| S.Fa'alogoMelbourne Storm | Player Points | 10 | 39% | 2.56 | 2.75 | TAB | +8% | 2.2% | – |
| C.LemueluDolphins | Anytime Try | 1 | 26% | 3.91 | 4.2 | SB | +8% | 1.2% | – |
| P.SamiGold Coast Titans | 2+ Tries | 2 | 17% | 5.8 | 6.25 | DAB | +7% | 0.7% | – |
| M.NawaqanitawaseSydney Roosters | Anytime Try | 1 | 69% | 1.44 | 1.55 | DAB | +7% | 6.7% | – |
| T.DuffyBrisbane Broncos | Anytime Try | 1 | 18% | 5.58 | 6 | SB | +7% | 0.7% | – |
| M.MosesParramatta Eels | Player Points | 6 | 80% | 1.26 | 1.35 | TAB | +7% | 10.5% | – |
| J.FogartyManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Player Points | 8 | 70% | 1.43 | 1.53 | SB | +7% | 6.4% | – |
| L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Player Points | 18 | 11% | 8.95 | 9.5 | SB | +6% | 0.4% | – |
| R.WalshBrisbane Broncos | Anytime Try | 1 | 41% | 2.44 | 2.6 | LAD | +6% | 2.0% | – |
| L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Player Points | 6 | 90% | 1.11 | 1.18 | SB | +6% | 17.2% | – |
| S.CrichtonCanterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | Anytime Try | 1 | 33% | 3.07 | 3.25 | TAB | +6% | 1.3% | – |
| J.CliffordNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 18% | 5.67 | 6 | SB | +6% | 0.6% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 6 | 93% | 1.08 | 1.14 | DAB | +5% | 19.5% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 32% | 3.09 | 3.25 | DAB | +5% | 1.2% | – |
| J.KerrSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 8% | 12.4 | 13 | PB | +5% | 0.2% | – |
| A.DoueihiWests Tigers | Player Points | 4 | 96% | 1.05 | 1.1 | DAB | +5% | 25.8% | – |
| M.MosesParramatta Eels | Anytime Try | 1 | 22% | 4.55 | 4.75 | DAB | +4% | 0.6% | – |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | Player Points | 20 | 10% | 10.48 | 11 | SB | +4% | 0.2% | – |
| J.IsaakoDolphins | Player Points | 12 | 51% | 1.95 | 2.03 | SB | +4% | 1.9% | – |
| J.IsaakoDolphins | Player Points | 10 | 67% | 1.5 | 1.55 | SB | +3% | 2.9% | – |
| P.SamiGold Coast Titans | Anytime Try | 1 | 53% | 1.9 | 1.96 | DAB | +3% | 1.6% | – |
| S.TuruvaWests Tigers | Anytime Try | 1 | 46% | 2.18 | 2.25 | LAD | +3% | 1.2% | – |
| N.WhyteSydney Roosters | Anytime Try | 1 | 10% | 9.71 | 10 | PB | +3% | 0.2% | – |
| J.IsaakoDolphins | Player Points | 14 | 37% | 2.73 | 2.8 | TAB | +2% | 0.7% | – |
| K.KiniGold Coast Titans | Anytime Try | 1 | 34% | 2.98 | 3.05 | LAD | +2% | 0.6% | – |
| X.WillisonBrisbane Broncos | Anytime Try | 1 | 15% | 6.85 | 7 | TAB | +2% | 0.2% | – |
| A.DoueihiWests Tigers | Player Points | 2 | 99% | 1.01 | 1.03 | TAB | +2% | 36.3% | – |
| S.SmithNewcastle Knights | Anytime Try | 1 | 12% | 8.35 | 8.5 | PB | +2% | 0.1% | – |
| L.HenryPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 10% | 9.79 | 10 | LAD | +2% | 0.1% | – |
| P.HaasBrisbane Broncos | Anytime Try | 1 | 11% | 8.82 | 9 | TAB | +2% | 0.1% | – |
| S.WalkerSydney Roosters | Player Points | 6 | 88% | 1.13 | 1.15 | DAB | +2% | 5.1% | – |
| E.SandersCanberra Raiders | Anytime Try | 1 | 20% | 4.92 | 5 | LAD | +2% | 0.2% | – |
| J.IsaakoDolphins | Player Points | 8 | 81% | 1.24 | 1.26 | SB | +1% | 2.7% | – |
| M.MosesParramatta Eels | Player Points | 4 | 92% | 1.09 | 1.1 | TAB | +1% | 6.6% | – |
| K.TuilagiParramatta Eels | Anytime Try | 1 | 18% | 5.42 | 5.5 | SB | +1% | 0.1% | – |
| J.CliffordNorth Queensland Cowboys | Player Points | 2 | 97% | 1.03 | 1.04 | DAB | +1% | 14.9% | – |
| J.FogartyManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Player Points | 6 | 85% | 1.18 | 1.19 | SB | +1% | 3.0% | – |
| A.BrimsonGold Coast Titans | Anytime Try | 1 | 29% | 3.47 | 3.5 | TAB | +1% | 0.2% | – |
| L.SmithPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 16% | 6.47 | 6.5 | SB | +1% | 0.1% | – |
| K.PongaNewcastle Knights | Player Points | 6 | 82% | 1.21 | 1.22 | DAB | +0% | 0.9% | – |
| H.LukiNorth Queensland Cowboys | Anytime Try | 1 | 25% | 3.99 | 4 | DAB | +0% | 0.1% | – |
| M.MosesParramatta Eels | Player Points | 2 | 98% | 1.02 | 1.02 | TAB | +0% | 9.2% | – |
| S.Fa'alogoMelbourne Storm | Player Points | 8 | 57% | 1.75 | 1.75 | TAB | +0% | 0.2% | – |
| K.PongaNewcastle Knights | Player Points | 8 | 67% | 1.5 | 1.5 | DAB | +0% | 0.2% | – |
Edges this large usually shrink as kickoff nears and the market sharpens. Very large EV can also signal a team-list or name mismatch — sanity-check the lineup. Educational only, not betting advice. 18+. Gamble responsibly.