MarketMoverA statistical rugby-league model — NRL, NRLW and State of Origin: try-scorer, goal-kicking and player-points projections, plus NRL & NRLW match markets (head-to-head, line, total) priced to surface value. Educational — not betting advice.
Every market where the model rates the best available price as value, ranked by expected value. EV = model win probability × price − 1. Kelly is the fraction of bankroll that maximises long-run growth at that edge (shown halved — safer). Set your bankroll and the Stake column shows the dollar amount. Modest edges show as-is; bigger ones appear only when ✓field — ≥2 other books price it shorter, so the market agrees that book is out of line, not just the model.
| Player▼ | Market▼ | Line▼ | Model▼ | Fair▼ | Best price▼ | Book▼ | EV▼ | Kelly▼ | Stake▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.LiddleSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 20% | 4.93 | 9 | TAB | +83%✓field | 5.2% | – |
| D.EganSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 31% | 3.22 | 4.6 | SB | +43%✓field | 6.0% | – |
| P.AlamotiPenrith Panthers | 2+ Tries | 2 | 12% | 8.62 | 12 | DAB | +39%✓field | 1.8% | – |
| E.GulerSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 10% | 9.69 | 13 | PB | +34%✓field | 1.4% | – |
| K.KoloamatangiSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Anytime Try | 1 | 14% | 7.13 | 9.5 | SB | +33%✓field | 1.9% | – |
| B.TalagiPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 36% | 2.75 | 3.6 | DAB | +31%✓field | 5.9% | – |
| D.AtkinsonSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 26% | 3.85 | 5 | PB | +30%✓field | 3.8% | – |
| T.PasekaManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | Anytime Try | 1 | 13% | 7.87 | 10 | PB | +27%✓field | 1.5% | – |
| T.NaufahuDolphins | 2+ Tries | 2 | 25% | 4.04 | 5 | DAB | +24% | 3.0% | – |
| J.IsaakoDolphins | Player Points | 14 | 39% | 2.54 | 3.15 | SB | +24% | 5.5% | – |
| P.AlamotiPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 44% | 2.27 | 2.75 | DAB | +21% | 6.1% | – |
| L.PateaPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 12% | 8.28 | 10 | DAB | +21% | 1.2% | – |
| L.FainuWests Tigers | Anytime Try | 1 | 13% | 7.85 | 9.5 | PB | +21% | 1.2% | – |
| J.IsaakoDolphins | Player Points | 12 | 54% | 1.86 | 2.25 | SB | +21% | 8.2% | – |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Player Points | 14 | 24% | 4.16 | 5 | SB | +21% | 2.6% | – |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Player Points | 12 | 38% | 2.63 | 3.15 | SB | +20% | 4.6% | – |
| J.IsaakoDolphins | Player Points | 16 | 27% | 3.71 | 4.4 | SB | +19% | 2.8% | – |
| J.IsaakoDolphins | Player Points | 10 | 68% | 1.46 | 1.72 | SB | +18% | 12.3% | – |
| T.NaufahuDolphins | Anytime Try | 1 | 62% | 1.63 | 1.9 | PB | +17% | 9.4% | – |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Player Points | 10 | 55% | 1.83 | 2.1 | DAB | +15% | 6.8% | – |
| J.KerrSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 9% | 11.36 | 13 | PB | +14% | 0.6% | – |
| H.StewartSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 19% | 5.38 | 6 | PB | +12% | 1.2% | – |
| L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | Player Points | 4 | 97% | 1.03 | 1.15 | DAB | +11% | 37.4% | – |
| T.DuffyBrisbane Broncos | Player Points | 4 | 95% | 1.05 | 1.17 | DAB | +11% | 32.4% | – |
| J.IsaakoDolphins | Player Points | 8 | 82% | 1.23 | 1.36 | SB | +11% | 15.1% | – |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Player Points | 8 | 72% | 1.39 | 1.53 | DAB | +10% | 9.3% | – |
| J.IsaakoDolphins | Player Points | 18 | 17% | 5.75 | 6.3 | SB | +10% | 0.9% | – |
| M.FeagaiSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 33% | 3.06 | 3.35 | SB | +10% | 2.0% | – |
| KL.IroCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Anytime Try | 1 | 42% | 2.38 | 2.6 | TAB | +9% | 3.0% | – |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Player Points | 16 | 14% | 7.15 | 7.75 | SB | +9% | 0.6% | – |
| C.GuthersonSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 32% | 3.11 | 3.3 | SB | +6% | 1.3% | – |
| J.McEwenNewcastle Knights | Anytime Try | 1 | 17% | 5.95 | 6.25 | SB | +5% | 0.5% | – |
| J.IsaakoDolphins | Player Points | 6 | 91% | 1.09 | 1.15 | DAB | +5% | 16.6% | – |
| T.CouchmanSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 10% | 10.57 | 11 | PB | +4% | 0.2% | – |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Player Points | 6 | 86% | 1.16 | 1.21 | DAB | +4% | 10.0% | – |
| T.BrownParramatta Eels | Anytime Try | 1 | 8% | 12.57 | 13 | PB | +4% | 0.2% | – |
| L.HenryPenrith Panthers | Anytime Try | 1 | 9% | 10.65 | 11 | SB | +3% | 0.2% | – |
| B.HuntBrisbane Broncos | Anytime Try | 1 | 13% | 7.76 | 8 | TAB | +3% | 0.2% | – |
| J.AverilloDolphins | Anytime Try | 1 | 40% | 2.52 | 2.6 | TAB | +3% | 0.9% | – |
| T.DuffyBrisbane Broncos | Player Points | 2 | 99% | 1.01 | 1.03 | TAB | +2% | 34.5% | – |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | Player Points | 4 | 95% | 1.05 | 1.06 | DAB | +1% | 7.6% | – |
| V.HolmesSt George-Illawarra Dragons | Anytime Try | 1 | 42% | 2.39 | 2.4 | PB | +0% | 0.1% | – |
Edges this large usually shrink as kickoff nears and the market sharpens. Very large EV can also signal a team-list or name mismatch — sanity-check the lineup. Educational only, not betting advice. 18+. Gamble responsibly.