A statistical rugby-league model — NRL, NRLW and State of Origin: try-scorer, goal-kicking and player-points projections, plus NRL & NRLW match markets (head-to-head, line, total) priced to surface value. Educational — not betting advice.
Round 21updated Thu 23 Jul 2026, 05:51PM AEST
| Player▼ | Line▼ | xPts▼ | My price▼ | Best book▼ | Best price▼ | EV▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.MosesParramatta Eels | 10 | 7.8 | 2.87 | TAB | 7.5 | +161% |
| J.FogartyManly-Warringah Sea Eagles | 12 | 9.6 | 2.93 | SB | 5.7 | +95% |
| L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | 12 | 10.9 | 2.17 | DAB | 4.1 | +89% |
| S.WalkerSydney Roosters | 14 | 10.3 | 3.91 | SB | 6.3 | +61% |
| K.PongaNewcastle Knights | 12 | 9.2 | 3.1 | DAB | 4 | +29% |
| N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 12 | 9.6 | 2.85 | SB | 3.6 | +27% |
| N.ClearyPenrith Panthers | 14 | 11.8 | 2.72 | DAB | 3.4 | +25% |
| J.CampbellGold Coast Titans | 4 | 7.4 | 1.16 | DAB | 1.09 | -6% |
| A.ReynoldsBrisbane Broncos | 4 | 7.6 | 1.14 | TAB | 1.06 | -7% |
| N.MeaneyMelbourne Storm | 4 | 7.2 | 1.17 | TAB | 1.08 | -8% |
| V.HolmesSt George-Illawarra Dragons | 4 | 6.3 | 1.28 | TAB | 1.05 | -18% |
| E.SandersCanberra Raiders | 6 | 7.5 | 1.42 | DAB | 1.1 | -23% |
| M.BurtonCanterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | 2 | 1.3 | 3.34 | TAB | 1.02 | -69% |
| T.AndrewsWests Tigers | 2 | 0.8 | 5.14 | TAB | 1.02 | -80% |
| A.WardSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | 4 | 0.7 | 7.01 | TAB | 1.05 | -85% |
“My price” is the model’s fair odds; EV compares it to the best book price. Educational only — not betting advice.