The Model

Round 17updated Thu 25 Jun 2026, 06:15AM AEST

A statistical NRL model: try-scorer, goal-kicking and player-points projections priced against live multi-bookmaker odds to surface value. Educational — not betting advice.

Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKick
S.WalkerSydney RoostersHalfback28%0.3310.765.19.3
T.DuffyBrisbane BroncosFive-Eighth18%0.209.932.29.1
M.NawaqanitawaseSydney RoostersWing69%1.184.746.80.0
B.SmithSydney RoostersWing53%0.753.139.20.0
R.WalshBrisbane BroncosFullback41%0.532.247.60.1
K.StaggsBrisbane BroncosCentre39%0.492.041.20.1
J.TedescoSydney RoostersFullback39%0.492.050.10.1
J.ArtharsBrisbane BroncosWing39%0.492.030.80.0
J.KarapaniBrisbane BroncosWing37%0.461.836.90.0
R.ToiaSydney RoostersCentre35%0.431.739.80.0
H.SavalaSydney RoostersCentre33%0.391.738.00.1
G.AndersonBrisbane BroncosCentre23%0.261.032.50.0
B.PiakuraBrisbane BroncosSecond Row20%0.220.943.70.0
S.WongSydney RoostersSecond Row19%0.210.954.00.0
D.Cherry-EvansSydney RoostersFive-Eighth17%0.190.946.10.1
J.RikiBrisbane BroncosSecond Row19%0.210.848.30.0
N.ButcherSydney RoostersSecond Row17%0.180.747.70.0
B.HuntBrisbane BroncosHalfback14%0.150.739.50.1
X.WillisonBrisbane BroncosLock15%0.160.651.90.0
C.WatsonSydney RoostersInterchange14%0.150.631.30.0
R.RobsonSydney RoostersHooker14%0.150.654.20.0
P.HaasBrisbane BroncosProp11%0.120.551.00.0
V.RadleySydney RoostersLock11%0.110.442.20.0
N.WhyteSydney RoostersProp10%0.110.449.70.0
E.ButcherSydney RoostersInterchange8%0.080.324.80.0
J.GosiewskiBrisbane BroncosInterchange8%0.080.325.80.0
C.PaixBrisbane BroncosHooker8%0.080.343.20.0
B.TaltyBrisbane BroncosInterchange8%0.080.330.10.0
S.FoketiSydney RoostersInterchange7%0.080.322.10.0
B.MozerBrisbane BroncosInterchange7%0.070.323.30.0
L.CollinsSydney RoostersProp7%0.070.334.10.0
S.LeniuSydney RoostersInterchange7%0.070.324.60.0
P.RikiBrisbane BroncosProp5%0.050.232.40.0
A.TawhaBrisbane BroncosInterchange4%0.040.225.10.0
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Titans
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKick
J.CampbellGold Coast TitansFive-Eighth25%0.297.463.36.2
S.CrichtonCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsFive-Eighth33%0.396.362.74.7
P.SamiGold Coast TitansWing53%0.753.037.40.0
J.RinakamaCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsWing40%0.522.137.10.0
J.De GrootGold Coast TitansWing38%0.471.927.10.0
K.KiniGold Coast TitansFullback34%0.411.737.70.1
J.KirazCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsWing33%0.401.636.50.0
M.BurtonCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsCentre31%0.371.655.60.1
J.FifitaGold Coast TitansCentre32%0.381.539.20.0
E.TualaCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsCentre30%0.361.439.40.0
L.GalvinCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsHalfback29%0.341.450.50.0
A.BrimsonGold Coast TitansCentre29%0.341.435.40.0
B.FermorGold Coast TitansSecond Row25%0.291.252.80.0
A.HauGold Coast TitansSecond Row26%0.301.245.10.0
C.TraceyCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsFullback22%0.251.028.00.0
J.SalmonCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsSecond Row19%0.210.947.70.0
J.CurranCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsSecond Row19%0.210.848.10.0
O.PascoeGold Coast TitansHooker14%0.150.752.50.1
K.MannCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsInterchange13%0.140.626.70.0
T.Fa'asuamaleuaiGold Coast TitansProp13%0.140.647.80.0
Z.HarrisonGold Coast TitansHalfback12%0.120.533.00.0
L.ThompsonCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsProp12%0.130.541.40.0
M.KingCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsProp9%0.090.450.40.0
C.RandallGold Coast TitansLock8%0.080.343.20.0
H.HayesCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsLock7%0.070.342.00.0
J.UnderhillCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsInterchange7%0.070.323.20.0
B.HaywardCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsHooker7%0.070.348.40.0
K.MorrinGold Coast TitansInterchange7%0.070.329.90.0
A.JonesCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsInterchange6%0.060.224.70.0
L.HopoiCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsInterchange6%0.060.218.70.0
J.LiuGold Coast TitansInterchange6%0.060.218.00.0
K.HaasGold Coast TitansInterchange5%0.060.231.80.0
J.PatstonGold Coast TitansInterchange5%0.050.224.30.0
M.FotuaikaGold Coast TitansProp5%0.050.241.20.0
Dolphins vs Warriors
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKick
J.IsaakoDolphinsWing44%0.5711.656.19.3
T.TuaupikiWarriorsFullback23%0.277.128.66.0
S.CobboDolphinsWing52%0.732.935.30.0
D.Watene-ZelezniakWarriorsWing49%0.682.733.10.0
H.Tabuai-FidowDolphinsFullback47%0.642.636.90.0
C.Nicoll-KlokstadWarriorsWing36%0.451.832.10.0
J.BostockDolphinsCentre34%0.411.743.10.0
H.FarnworthDolphinsCentre32%0.391.645.90.0
C.LemueluDolphinsSecond Row26%0.301.246.40.0
K.NikorimaDolphinsFive-Eighth25%0.281.235.60.1
A.PompeyWarriorsCentre19%0.210.932.60.1
A.LeiatauaWarriorsCentre20%0.220.930.30.0
K.FinefeuiakiDolphinsSecond Row17%0.190.848.50.0
I.KatoaDolphinsHalfback15%0.160.737.90.1
T.MartinWarriorsHalfback16%0.180.739.60.0
C.Harris-TavitaWarriorsFive-Eighth13%0.140.733.10.1
K.CapewellWarriorsSecond Row14%0.150.639.80.0
J.Marshall-KingDolphinsHooker12%0.130.550.10.0
J.LabanWarriorsSecond Row12%0.130.544.20.0
M.KnowlesDolphinsLock11%0.110.445.60.0
M.PlathDolphinsInterchange10%0.110.440.40.0
K.DonoghoeDolphinsInterchange9%0.100.435.80.0
S.HealeyWarriorsInterchange9%0.090.420.90.0
M.BarnettWarriorsProp9%0.090.441.80.0
W.EganWarriorsHooker9%0.090.448.90.0
T.FleglerDolphinsProp8%0.090.332.60.0
F.MoloDolphinsProp8%0.080.332.30.0
E.ClarkWarriorsLock8%0.080.349.90.0
F.KaufusiDolphinsInterchange7%0.070.322.40.0
T.Stowers-SmithWarriorsProp7%0.070.340.00.0
E.Ieremia-ToeavaWarriorsInterchange7%0.070.327.00.0
D.VaimaugaWarriorsInterchange7%0.070.328.80.0
R.StoneDolphinsInterchange7%0.070.327.00.0
M.NiukoreWarriorsInterchange6%0.060.324.20.0
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKick
J.FogartyManly-Warringah Sea EaglesHalfback14%0.159.753.59.1
S.Fa'alogoMelbourne StormFullback26%0.308.234.97.0
L.HopoateManly-Warringah Sea EaglesWing47%0.642.633.40.0
J.SaabManly-Warringah Sea EaglesWing46%0.612.435.10.0
M.LeoMelbourne StormWing43%0.562.330.10.0
T.TrbojevicManly-Warringah Sea EaglesFullback40%0.512.139.30.0
T.KoulaManly-Warringah Sea EaglesCentre40%0.512.038.80.0
W.WarbrickMelbourne StormWing37%0.451.828.30.0
J.FeledyManly-Warringah Sea EaglesCentre35%0.441.734.80.0
H.Olakau'atuManly-Warringah Sea EaglesSecond Row32%0.381.552.00.0
H.GrantMelbourne StormHooker23%0.261.154.30.1
B.TrbojevicManly-Warringah Sea EaglesSecond Row24%0.281.147.00.0
J.HowarthMelbourne StormCentre18%0.200.829.90.0
L.BrooksManly-Warringah Sea EaglesFive-Eighth15%0.170.737.50.1
J.ChanMelbourne StormCentre15%0.170.731.50.0
C.MunsterMelbourne StormFive-Eighth14%0.150.641.00.0
T.WishartMelbourne StormHalfback11%0.110.636.40.1
A.LisatiMelbourne StormSecond Row12%0.120.547.10.0
J.WalshManly-Warringah Sea EaglesInterchange11%0.110.519.50.0
C.ClarkeMelbourne StormSecond Row11%0.110.540.00.0
T.PasekaManly-Warringah Sea EaglesProp10%0.110.440.80.0
S.UtoikamanuMelbourne StormProp10%0.110.443.20.0
J.SimpkinManly-Warringah Sea EaglesHooker10%0.100.446.20.0
A.SchouppManly-Warringah Sea EaglesInterchange8%0.090.419.10.0
S.LaiafiManly-Warringah Sea EaglesInterchange7%0.080.318.80.0
T.LoieroMelbourne StormLock7%0.070.347.10.0
T.ToelauMelbourne StormInterchange6%0.060.320.70.0
J.TrbojevicManly-Warringah Sea EaglesLock6%0.060.241.30.0
E.BullemorManly-Warringah Sea EaglesProp5%0.060.233.30.0
N.BrownManly-Warringah Sea EaglesInterchange5%0.050.226.60.0
J.PahuluMelbourne StormInterchange5%0.060.221.00.0
J.KingMelbourne StormProp5%0.050.241.80.0
A.MacDonaldMelbourne StormInterchange5%0.050.227.20.0
J.HetheringtonMelbourne StormInterchange4%0.040.220.50.0
Newcastle Knights vs Wests Tigers
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKick
A.DoueihiWests TigersHalfback22%0.2410.357.09.3
K.PongaNewcastle KnightsFullback34%0.419.458.17.8
D.YoungNewcastle KnightsWing49%0.672.734.40.0
G.MarzhewNewcastle KnightsWing47%0.632.536.00.0
S.TuruvaWests TigersWing46%0.612.529.80.0
D.LucasNewcastle KnightsSecond Row46%0.612.454.20.0
F.SharpeNewcastle KnightsFive-Eighth44%0.592.450.20.0
B.BestNewcastle KnightsCentre37%0.461.843.20.0
T.MayWests TigersCentre34%0.411.738.70.1
J.SkeltonWests TigersWing35%0.431.731.90.0
D.BrownNewcastle KnightsHalfback33%0.401.751.00.1
J.BulaWests TigersFullback32%0.391.637.80.0
D.GagaiNewcastle KnightsCentre25%0.291.240.90.1
J.McEwenNewcastle KnightsSecond Row25%0.281.149.30.0
S.To'aWests TigersCentre21%0.230.930.90.0
S.FainuWests TigersSecond Row19%0.210.946.80.0
J.LuaiWests TigersFive-Eighth16%0.180.837.00.1
T.MooneyNewcastle KnightsProp16%0.170.747.70.0
S.SmithNewcastle KnightsInterchange12%0.130.625.60.1
T.SukkarWests TigersSecond Row14%0.150.638.50.0
A.KoroisauWests TigersHooker11%0.120.654.20.1
L.FainuWests TigersInterchange11%0.110.521.30.0
M.CrokerNewcastle KnightsLock11%0.110.446.10.0
P.CrosslandNewcastle KnightsHooker10%0.110.446.10.0
T.CantNewcastle KnightsInterchange10%0.100.427.10.0
J.SaifitiNewcastle KnightsProp7%0.080.339.60.0
A.SeyfarthWests TigersInterchange7%0.070.328.20.0
C.HopwoodNewcastle KnightsInterchange7%0.070.320.40.0
F.PoleWests TigersProp7%0.070.340.90.0
T.FrizellNewcastle KnightsInterchange6%0.060.329.20.0
J.LanyonWests TigersInterchange5%0.060.227.40.0
A.TwalWests TigersLock5%0.050.254.50.0
B.AfoaWests TigersInterchange4%0.040.227.20.0
North Queensland Cowboys vs Penrith Panthers
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKick
N.ClearyPenrith PanthersHalfback32%0.3912.169.210.5
J.CliffordNorth Queensland CowboysHalfback18%0.197.749.56.9
T.JenkinsPenrith PanthersWing59%0.893.639.30.0
B.BurnsNorth Queensland CowboysWing55%0.813.235.10.0
M.TaulagiNorth Queensland CowboysWing54%0.773.134.60.0
B.To'oPenrith PanthersWing52%0.732.943.80.0
P.AlamotiPenrith PanthersCentre48%0.652.745.80.1
B.TalagiPenrith PanthersFive-Eighth41%0.532.245.70.0
D.EdwardsPenrith PanthersFullback36%0.441.949.00.1
T.ChesterNorth Queensland CowboysCentre36%0.441.840.20.0
I.TagoPenrith PanthersCentre35%0.441.741.50.0
L.MartinPenrith PanthersSecond Row28%0.321.345.00.0
S.DrinkwaterNorth Queensland CowboysFullback24%0.271.342.30.2
Z.LaybuttNorth Queensland CowboysCentre25%0.281.233.10.1
H.LukiNorth Queensland CowboysSecond Row25%0.291.254.00.0
J.PurdueNorth Queensland CowboysFive-Eighth25%0.291.240.60.0
I.Papali'iPenrith PanthersSecond Row24%0.281.154.50.0
J.NanaiNorth Queensland CowboysSecond Row22%0.241.045.50.0
L.GarnerPenrith PanthersInterchange16%0.170.727.40.0
L.SmithPenrith PanthersProp16%0.170.747.50.0
I.YeoPenrith PanthersLock15%0.160.655.50.0
F.LussickPenrith PanthersHooker14%0.150.649.40.0
R.MahoneyNorth Queensland CowboysHooker12%0.130.555.40.0
J.CoggerPenrith PanthersInterchange11%0.110.516.80.0
L.HenryPenrith PanthersInterchange10%0.110.443.00.0
C.HessNorth Queensland CowboysInterchange9%0.090.433.10.0
M.LeotaPenrith PanthersProp9%0.090.439.70.0
S.SorensenPenrith PanthersInterchange9%0.090.433.60.0
G.NeameNorth Queensland CowboysInterchange7%0.070.331.20.0
S.LukeNorth Queensland CowboysInterchange7%0.070.323.40.0
R.CotterNorth Queensland CowboysLock6%0.070.351.90.0
J.TaumaloloNorth Queensland CowboysProp6%0.060.238.90.0
T.MikaeleNorth Queensland CowboysProp6%0.060.237.90.0
M.LodgeNorth Queensland CowboysInterchange5%0.050.221.40.0
Parramatta Eels vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKick
L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney RabbitohsCentre21%0.2410.955.110.0
M.MosesParramatta EelsHalfback22%0.258.863.87.8
A.JohnstonSouth Sydney RabbitohsWing72%1.275.148.60.0
J.Addo-CarrParramatta EelsWing46%0.612.536.30.0
B.KellyParramatta EelsWing42%0.542.234.20.0
E.KosiSouth Sydney RabbitohsWing39%0.492.030.40.0
T.DuncanSouth Sydney RabbitohsCentre35%0.431.746.60.0
I.IongiParramatta EelsFullback33%0.401.641.70.0
J.GraySouth Sydney RabbitohsFullback29%0.341.439.70.0
J.SamraniParramatta EelsCentre29%0.341.337.60.0
C.WalkerSouth Sydney RabbitohsFive-Eighth28%0.321.342.50.0
S.RussellParramatta EelsCentre25%0.281.234.20.1
D.FifitaSouth Sydney RabbitohsSecond Row24%0.281.150.20.0
R.VolkmanParramatta EelsFive-Eighth20%0.221.136.10.2
K.KautogaParramatta EelsSecond Row21%0.241.046.00.0
K.TuilagiParramatta EelsSecond Row18%0.200.846.20.0
E.AitkenSouth Sydney RabbitohsSecond Row18%0.200.844.60.0
A.WardSouth Sydney RabbitohsHalfback14%0.150.736.30.1
T.Da SilvaParramatta EelsHooker13%0.140.748.70.1
K.KoloamatangiSouth Sydney RabbitohsProp14%0.150.650.70.0
C.MurraySouth Sydney RabbitohsLock14%0.150.653.40.0
B.SmithSouth Sydney RabbitohsHooker11%0.120.537.80.0
D.WalkerParramatta EelsInterchange9%0.090.428.00.0
J.HumphreysSouth Sydney RabbitohsInterchange8%0.080.321.00.0
J.RadelSouth Sydney RabbitohsInterchange8%0.090.324.40.0
L.MorettiParramatta EelsProp8%0.080.332.30.0
J.WilliamsParramatta EelsProp8%0.080.348.10.0
T.BrownParramatta EelsInterchange7%0.080.316.80.0
L.HubnerSouth Sydney RabbitohsInterchange7%0.080.331.30.0
J.de BelinParramatta EelsLock6%0.060.339.80.0
S.TuivaitiParramatta EelsInterchange6%0.060.227.60.0
T.TatolaSouth Sydney RabbitohsProp5%0.050.237.20.0
H.EdwardsParramatta EelsInterchange5%0.050.231.00.0
L.Le BlancSouth Sydney RabbitohsInterchange5%0.050.221.10.0
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKick
E.SandersCanberra RaidersHalfback20%0.237.458.36.5
V.HolmesSt George-Illawarra DragonsCentre43%0.566.765.04.4
S.TuSt George-Illawarra DragonsWing52%0.742.931.20.0
X.SavageCanberra RaidersWing41%0.532.128.50.0
K.WeekesCanberra RaidersFullback39%0.502.133.60.1
T.SloanSt George-Illawarra DragonsWing37%0.471.932.70.0
E.StrangeCanberra RaidersFive-Eighth36%0.441.839.60.1
C.GuthersonSt George-Illawarra DragonsFullback33%0.411.739.70.1
S.TamaleCanberra RaidersWing33%0.401.628.10.0
S.SasagiCanberra RaidersCentre33%0.391.634.60.0
M.FeagaiSt George-Illawarra DragonsCentre33%0.391.633.50.0
M.TimokoCanberra RaidersCentre29%0.341.438.20.0
D.EganSt George-Illawarra DragonsSecond Row24%0.281.150.20.0
H.YoungCanberra RaidersSecond Row23%0.261.156.20.0
D.AtkinsonSt George-Illawarra DragonsFive-Eighth20%0.221.034.20.1
K.FlanaganSt George-Illawarra DragonsHalfback17%0.190.938.20.1
H.StewartSt George-Illawarra DragonsSecond Row18%0.190.852.00.0
L.LeiluaSt George-Illawarra DragonsInterchange17%0.190.734.40.0
Z.HoskingCanberra RaidersSecond Row17%0.180.750.60.0
D.CookSt George-Illawarra DragonsHooker16%0.170.751.30.0
S.KrisCanberra RaidersInterchange16%0.170.721.90.0
O.PattieCanberra RaidersHooker15%0.160.741.90.0
J.LiddleSt George-Illawarra DragonsInterchange11%0.120.527.90.0
T.StarlingCanberra RaidersInterchange10%0.110.436.40.0
T.CouchmanSt George-Illawarra DragonsProp10%0.100.453.40.0
E.GulerSt George-Illawarra DragonsInterchange9%0.090.431.60.0
L.Pasifiki TongaSt George-Illawarra DragonsProp9%0.090.436.60.0
A.MariotaCanberra RaidersInterchange8%0.090.333.20.0
J.KerrSt George-Illawarra DragonsInterchange8%0.080.322.10.0
J.TapineCanberra RaidersProp8%0.080.347.10.0
C.HorsburghCanberra RaidersProp7%0.070.352.20.0
J.BraileyCanberra RaidersLock7%0.070.342.40.0
R.CouchmanSt George-Illawarra DragonsLock7%0.070.354.40.0
M.SmithiesCanberra RaidersInterchange5%0.050.234.10.0