The Model

A statistical rugby-league model — NRL, NRLW and State of Origin: try-scorer, goal-kicking and player-points projections, plus NRL & NRLW match markets (head-to-head, line, total) priced to surface value. Educational — not betting advice.

Round 21updated Thu 23 Jul 2026, 05:51PM AEST
Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKickSC
J.CliffordNorth Queensland CowboysFive-Eighth24%0.288.047.86.969
A.ReynoldsBrisbane BroncosHalfback14%0.157.664.17.047
M.TaulagiNorth Queensland CowboysWing56%0.823.335.00.063
B.BurnsNorth Queensland CowboysWing52%0.743.036.30.072
D.MarinerBrisbane BroncosWing52%0.732.931.90.042
S.DrinkwaterNorth Queensland CowboysFullback45%0.592.655.10.273
J.KarapaniBrisbane BroncosWing44%0.582.334.10.050
R.WalshBrisbane BroncosFullback41%0.522.246.60.164
T.ChesterNorth Queensland CowboysCentre37%0.461.834.00.064
J.PurdueNorth Queensland CowboysCentre35%0.431.744.90.058
K.StaggsBrisbane BroncosCentre33%0.401.739.60.159
H.LukiNorth Queensland CowboysSecond Row31%0.381.553.70.070
E.MamBrisbane BroncosFive-Eighth30%0.351.443.10.047
J.NanaiNorth Queensland CowboysSecond Row28%0.331.345.70.056
T.DeardenNorth Queensland CowboysHalfback25%0.291.245.80.076
G.ShibasakiBrisbane BroncosCentre22%0.251.032.20.036
R.MahoneyNorth Queensland CowboysHooker18%0.200.854.60.048
X.WillisonBrisbane BroncosSecond Row18%0.200.851.30.064
J.RikiBrisbane BroncosSecond Row18%0.190.848.10.069
C.HessNorth Queensland CowboysInterchange11%0.120.531.20.042
P.HaasBrisbane BroncosProp10%0.110.452.00.074
G.AndersonBrisbane BroncosInterchange10%0.110.418.30.047
B.TaltyBrisbane BroncosInterchange9%0.100.429.70.042
B.HuntBrisbane BroncosInterchange8%0.090.423.50.029
S.LukeNorth Queensland CowboysInterchange9%0.090.422.10.026
T.MikaeleNorth Queensland CowboysProp8%0.090.340.00.049
C.PaixBrisbane BroncosHooker8%0.080.342.80.041
V.SemuBrisbane BroncosInterchange8%0.080.320.40.024
J.TaumaloloNorth Queensland CowboysProp8%0.080.339.40.052
R.CotterNorth Queensland CowboysLock7%0.070.348.70.054
G.NeameNorth Queensland CowboysInterchange6%0.060.330.70.034
P.RikiBrisbane BroncosProp6%0.060.232.00.040
P.CarriganBrisbane BroncosLock6%0.060.255.20.070
M.LodgeNorth Queensland CowboysInterchange5%0.050.221.20.032
Canberra Raiders vs Wests Tigers
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKickSC
E.SandersCanberra RaidersHalfback23%0.267.560.76.454
X.SavageCanberra RaidersWing53%0.763.029.20.042
J.StuartCanberra RaidersWing50%0.702.830.60.031
K.WeekesCanberra RaidersFullback40%0.502.137.30.160
J.BulaWests TigersFullback39%0.502.039.70.054
S.SasagiCanberra RaidersCentre39%0.502.034.40.076
F.TavanaWests TigersWing36%0.441.828.90.029
E.StrangeCanberra RaidersFive-Eighth32%0.391.740.10.157
S.TuruvaWests TigersCentre33%0.401.635.50.049
M.TimokoCanberra RaidersCentre32%0.391.640.30.061
J.TupouWests TigersWing30%0.361.529.00.021
N.MartinCanberra RaidersSecond Row28%0.321.355.10.067
P.HerbertWests TigersCentre23%0.271.231.50.143
Ta.MayWests TigersProp20%0.221.00.185
E.RobertsWests TigersSecond Row21%0.230.941.90.039
D.LaurieCanberra RaidersInterchange20%0.230.924.40.047
J.LuaiWests TigersFive-Eighth19%0.210.934.20.160
Z.HoskingCanberra RaidersSecond Row19%0.210.949.40.063
T.AndrewsWests TigersHalfback16%0.180.838.50.1
A.KoroisauWests TigersHooker15%0.160.754.10.156
T.StarlingCanberra RaidersHooker16%0.170.746.10.043
S.FainuWests TigersSecond Row12%0.130.50.070
J.TapineCanberra RaidersProp10%0.100.445.40.064
A.SeyfarthWests TigersInterchange9%0.090.427.70.037
J.PapaliiCanberra RaidersInterchange8%0.090.425.30.043
A.MariotaCanberra RaidersInterchange8%0.080.330.20.043
F.PoleWests TigersProp7%0.080.340.90.046
C.HorsburghCanberra RaidersProp7%0.070.348.90.062
J.BraileyCanberra RaidersInterchange6%0.060.329.80.025
A.TwalWests TigersLock6%0.060.253.40.080
M.SmithiesCanberra RaidersLock5%0.060.243.50.040
B.AfoaWests TigersInterchange5%0.050.225.10.036
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKickSC
N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland SharksHalfback14%0.159.660.49.097
J.FogartyManly-Warringah Sea EaglesHalfback12%0.129.647.29.163
J.SaabManly-Warringah Sea EaglesWing45%0.602.429.80.048
T.KoulaManly-Warringah Sea EaglesWing44%0.582.332.90.072
R.MulitaloCronulla-Sutherland SharksWing43%0.562.231.80.064
S.KatoaCronulla-Sutherland SharksWing37%0.471.925.30.066
R.GarrickManly-Warringah Sea EaglesCentre34%0.411.753.00.165
L.HopoateManly-Warringah Sea EaglesFullback35%0.431.734.30.064
K.IroCronulla-Sutherland SharksCentre30%0.351.434.90.068
J.FeledyManly-Warringah Sea EaglesCentre28%0.331.332.90.025
H.Olakau'atuManly-Warringah Sea EaglesSecond Row26%0.301.251.60.087
J.WalshManly-Warringah Sea EaglesFive-Eighth24%0.271.236.50.163
B.TrbojevicManly-Warringah Sea EaglesSecond Row22%0.251.042.70.068
W.KennedyCronulla-Sutherland SharksFullback20%0.230.924.60.058
J.RamienCronulla-Sutherland SharksCentre20%0.220.930.20.056
B.TrindallCronulla-Sutherland SharksFive-Eighth15%0.160.836.40.263
B.NikoraCronulla-Sutherland SharksSecond Row15%0.160.644.80.047
B.BurnsCronulla-Sutherland SharksInterchange13%0.140.528.30.072
T.WiltonCronulla-Sutherland SharksSecond Row12%0.130.546.30.058
S.TalakaiCronulla-Sutherland SharksInterchange11%0.110.520.00.035
B.BraileyCronulla-Sutherland SharksHooker10%0.110.453.20.071
A.Fonua-BlakeCronulla-Sutherland SharksProp10%0.110.441.30.056
T.HazeltonCronulla-Sutherland SharksProp10%0.110.434.00.043
T.PasekaManly-Warringah Sea EaglesProp10%0.100.439.30.057
J.SimpkinManly-Warringah Sea EaglesHooker10%0.100.445.70.046
C.McInnesCronulla-Sutherland SharksLock7%0.080.349.40.050
S.LaiafiManly-Warringah Sea EaglesProp7%0.070.329.80.022
K.HetheringtonManly-Warringah Sea EaglesInterchange7%0.070.329.80.042
N.LenazManly-Warringah Sea EaglesInterchange6%0.070.321.10.00
J.TrbojevicManly-Warringah Sea EaglesLock6%0.060.340.60.044
E.BullemorManly-Warringah Sea EaglesInterchange6%0.060.225.00.040
N.BrownManly-Warringah Sea EaglesInterchange5%0.050.226.00.036
O.KaufusiCronulla-Sutherland SharksInterchange5%0.050.219.50.035
Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKickSC
N.ClearyPenrith PanthersHalfback27%0.3111.862.710.594
M.MosesParramatta EelsHalfback17%0.197.857.77.146
P.AlamotiPenrith PanthersWing55%0.793.343.80.162
B.To'oPenrith PanthersWing53%0.763.040.00.067
T.JenkinsPenrith PanthersFullback51%0.722.944.90.087
C.McleanPenrith PanthersCentre47%0.632.543.60.067
B.KellyParramatta EelsWing43%0.552.332.20.158
J.Addo-CarrParramatta EelsWing40%0.512.033.00.044
B.TalagiPenrith PanthersFive-Eighth36%0.451.842.80.058
I.IongiParramatta EelsFullback29%0.341.435.60.067
J.SamraniParramatta EelsCentre26%0.301.235.00.054
L.MartinPenrith PanthersSecond Row25%0.291.244.20.053
I.Papali'iPenrith PanthersSecond Row23%0.271.153.20.071
R.VolkmanParramatta EelsFive-Eighth15%0.160.934.20.252
A.NanvaParramatta EelsCentre16%0.180.732.10.050
K.KautogaParramatta EelsSecond Row16%0.180.742.00.064
L.SmithPenrith PanthersProp15%0.160.745.40.056
K.TuilagiParramatta EelsSecond Row15%0.160.644.30.061
T.Da SilvaParramatta EelsHooker12%0.130.644.80.141
I.YeoPenrith PanthersLock14%0.150.654.20.069
F.LussickPenrith PanthersHooker12%0.130.545.70.046
B.ScottPenrith PanthersInterchange11%0.120.518.70.013
L.HenryPenrith PanthersInterchange10%0.100.437.90.062
M.LeotaPenrith PanthersProp8%0.080.338.50.048
S.SorensenPenrith PanthersInterchange8%0.080.331.20.038
D.WalkerParramatta EelsInterchange7%0.080.326.90.041
B.PhillipsPenrith PanthersInterchange8%0.080.326.30.039
L.MorettiParramatta EelsInterchange7%0.080.326.70.038
J.WilliamsParramatta EelsProp7%0.070.346.50.064
T.BrownParramatta EelsInterchange6%0.060.316.90.034
J.de BelinParramatta EelsLock6%0.060.239.80.033
S.TuivaitiParramatta EelsProp6%0.060.232.20.037
H.EdwardsParramatta EelsInterchange5%0.050.229.80.027
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKickSC
L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney RabbitohsCentre20%0.2310.948.210.076
N.MeaneyMelbourne StormCentre26%0.307.246.46.047
A.JohnstonSouth Sydney RabbitohsWing62%0.963.943.60.078
M.LeoMelbourne StormWing42%0.552.233.90.054
C.GrahamSouth Sydney RabbitohsWing40%0.512.035.80.056
S.FaalogoMelbourne StormFullback35%0.441.834.60.183
S.Tuimalatu-BrownMelbourne StormWing30%0.351.428.30.019
M.DuftySouth Sydney RabbitohsFullback26%0.301.233.40.064
H.GrantMelbourne StormHooker24%0.281.254.90.171
J.HughesMelbourne StormHalfback24%0.281.137.60.067
J.HowarthMelbourne StormCentre23%0.271.131.80.054
D.FifitaSouth Sydney RabbitohsSecond Row22%0.251.046.30.067
T.WishartMelbourne StormFive-Eighth20%0.221.036.60.135
C.WalkerSouth Sydney RabbitohsFive-Eighth19%0.200.942.10.061
J.WightonSouth Sydney RabbitohsCentre18%0.200.831.80.040
A.WardSouth Sydney RabbitohsHalfback14%0.150.738.00.147
E.AitkenSouth Sydney RabbitohsSecond Row16%0.180.742.80.061
O.KeeleyMelbourne StormSecond Row16%0.170.736.80.041
C.ClarkeMelbourne StormSecond Row15%0.160.642.00.050
J.GraySouth Sydney RabbitohsInterchange14%0.150.619.80.055
K.KoloamatangiSouth Sydney RabbitohsProp14%0.150.649.00.066
B.SmithSouth Sydney RabbitohsHooker12%0.120.536.90.074
J.SullivanSouth Sydney RabbitohsInterchange9%0.100.416.50.016
S.UtoikamanuMelbourne StormProp10%0.100.443.00.066
T.LoieroMelbourne StormLock10%0.100.446.00.057
A.HincheyMelbourne StormInterchange8%0.080.415.60.19
T.ToelauMelbourne StormInterchange8%0.080.321.10.030
L.HubnerSouth Sydney RabbitohsLock7%0.080.341.60.040
J.HumphreysSouth Sydney RabbitohsInterchange7%0.070.320.00.040
J.KingMelbourne StormProp5%0.060.240.40.053
T.TatolaSouth Sydney RabbitohsProp5%0.050.236.60.045
A.MacDonaldMelbourne StormInterchange5%0.050.227.40.037
L.Le BlancSouth Sydney RabbitohsInterchange5%0.050.221.50.029
J.HetheringtonMelbourne StormInterchange5%0.050.220.50.020
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Gold Coast Titans
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKickSC
J.CampbellGold Coast TitansFive-Eighth26%0.307.459.86.275
V.HolmesSt George-Illawarra DragonsCentre37%0.466.359.24.464
P.SamiGold Coast TitansWing51%0.702.836.50.063
S.TuSt George-Illawarra DragonsWing43%0.562.231.00.056
T.SloanSt George-Illawarra DragonsWing40%0.512.034.60.035
D.IeremiaGold Coast TitansWing39%0.492.025.20.036
C.GuthersonSt George-Illawarra DragonsFullback30%0.361.538.40.142
Mat FeagaiSt George-Illawarra DragonsCentre30%0.351.433.70.040
J.FifitaGold Coast TitansCentre29%0.341.438.40.057
K.KiniGold Coast TitansFullback27%0.311.332.80.174
J.De GrootGold Coast TitansCentre27%0.321.330.60.025
B.FermorGold Coast TitansSecond Row26%0.301.354.90.165
A.HauGold Coast TitansSecond Row26%0.301.245.10.056
D.EganSt George-Illawarra DragonsSecond Row25%0.281.150.30.063
D.AtkinsonSt George-Illawarra DragonsFive-Eighth22%0.251.138.80.138
K.FlanaganSt George-Illawarra DragonsHalfback18%0.200.939.50.130
L.LeiluaSt George-Illawarra DragonsInterchange19%0.210.831.80.052
D.CookSt George-Illawarra DragonsHooker17%0.180.852.70.057
Z.HarrisonGold Coast TitansHalfback14%0.160.735.30.146
H.StewartSt George-Illawarra DragonsSecond Row16%0.170.751.50.071
O.PascoeGold Coast TitansHooker12%0.130.651.90.159
J.LiddleSt George-Illawarra DragonsInterchange13%0.140.627.00.033
J.KerrSt George-Illawarra DragonsInterchange9%0.090.422.20.029
T.CouchmanSt George-Illawarra DragonsProp9%0.090.452.30.075
C.BaiGold Coast TitansInterchange8%0.090.330.40.039
K.MorrinGold Coast TitansInterchange8%0.080.328.60.047
L.Pasifiki TongaSt George-Illawarra DragonsProp7%0.070.335.80.047
J.HalangahuSt George-Illawarra DragonsInterchange7%0.070.320.40.019
C.RandallGold Coast TitansLock7%0.070.342.80.043
K.HaasGold Coast TitansInterchange6%0.070.330.40.042
R.CouchmanSt George-Illawarra DragonsLock6%0.060.252.50.072
J.PatstonGold Coast TitansInterchange5%0.050.223.70.035
M.FotuaikaGold Coast TitansProp5%0.050.240.70.049
I.Fa'asuamaleauiGold Coast TitansProp4%0.040.232.90.0
Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKickSC
S.WalkerSydney RoostersHalfback20%0.2310.358.69.369
K.PongaNewcastle KnightsFullback31%0.379.260.57.889
M.NawaqanitawaseSydney RoostersWing58%0.873.544.40.070
D.TupouSydney RoostersWing42%0.542.231.00.059
D.YoungNewcastle KnightsWing38%0.481.928.20.064
G.MarzhewNewcastle KnightsWing35%0.431.731.50.069
B.SmithSydney RoostersCentre32%0.391.632.20.174
D.LucasNewcastle KnightsSecond Row33%0.401.652.60.082
F.SharpeNewcastle KnightsFive-Eighth32%0.381.543.10.060
B.BestNewcastle KnightsCentre31%0.371.537.80.071
R.ToiaSydney RoostersCentre28%0.331.337.50.072
J.TedescoSydney RoostersFullback27%0.311.337.80.077
D.BrownNewcastle KnightsHalfback26%0.311.349.20.063
F.HuntNewcastle KnightsCentre27%0.311.335.30.046
S.WongSydney RoostersSecond Row18%0.200.852.20.067
F.ManuleleuaNewcastle KnightsSecond Row17%0.180.738.30.037
D.Cherry-EvansSydney RoostersFive-Eighth13%0.140.639.60.151
N.ButcherSydney RoostersSecond Row14%0.150.646.10.056
T.MooneyNewcastle KnightsProp11%0.120.544.60.062
H.SavalaSydney RoostersInterchange10%0.110.520.10.058
C.WatsonSydney RoostersInterchange11%0.110.528.50.044
R.RobsonSydney RoostersHooker11%0.110.551.20.059
S.SmithNewcastle KnightsInterchange9%0.090.521.30.154
M.CrokerNewcastle KnightsLock9%0.090.442.70.050
N.WhyteSydney RoostersProp9%0.090.445.20.058
V.RadleySydney RoostersLock8%0.090.441.30.044
P.CrosslandNewcastle KnightsHooker7%0.070.344.30.048
T.CantNewcastle KnightsInterchange7%0.070.325.00.030
S.LeniuSydney RoostersProp7%0.070.331.30.033
S.FoketiSydney RoostersInterchange7%0.070.322.30.024
E.ButcherSydney RoostersInterchange7%0.070.323.40.027
C.HopwoodNewcastle KnightsInterchange7%0.070.321.20.033
T.FrizellNewcastle KnightsProp5%0.050.235.60.044
Warriors vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
PlayerPosTry %xTriesxPointsxPerfxKickSC
T.TuaupikiWarriorsFullback26%0.307.228.96.060
S.CrichtonCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsFive-Eighth23%0.275.851.24.760
A.Khan-PereiraWarriorsWing58%0.863.433.40.062
D.Watene-ZelezniakWarriorsWing53%0.753.031.60.061
J.RinakamaCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsWing39%0.492.027.30.069
J.KirazCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsWing36%0.451.828.40.069
M.BurtonCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsCentre26%0.311.350.50.165
E.TualaCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsCentre26%0.311.233.60.062
L.GalvinCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsHalfback26%0.291.245.30.070
J.PrestonCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsSecond Row26%0.301.250.20.064
A.PompeyWarriorsCentre21%0.231.031.50.151
A.LeiatauaWarriorsCentre22%0.251.032.10.049
C.TraceyCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsFullback21%0.231.026.00.051
V.KikauCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsSecond Row21%0.240.942.30.056
C.Harris-TavitaWarriorsFive-Eighth14%0.150.731.90.147
T.MartinWarriorsHalfback13%0.140.638.00.080
K.CapewellWarriorsSecond Row13%0.140.639.50.055
L.HalasimaWarriorsInterchange12%0.130.526.80.044
J.LabanWarriorsSecond Row12%0.130.540.20.045
J.CurranCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsInterchange12%0.120.526.60.044
W.EganWarriorsHooker10%0.100.446.20.053
S.O'SullivanCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsInterchange8%0.090.420.30.024
M.BarnettWarriorsProp8%0.090.442.40.057
S.HealeyWarriorsInterchange8%0.090.320.70.026
B.HaywardCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsHooker7%0.080.343.10.040
J.SalmonCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsLock8%0.080.340.70.053
J.Fisher-HarrisWarriorsProp7%0.070.345.50.063
L.ThompsonCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsProp7%0.070.347.50.061
E.ClarkWarriorsLock6%0.060.348.80.067
H.HayesCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsInterchange6%0.060.329.10.041
T.Stowers-SmithWarriorsInterchange6%0.060.231.60.047
M.KingCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsProp6%0.060.248.10.066
L.HopoiCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsInterchange6%0.060.219.10.020