The Model

A statistical rugby-league model — NRL, NRLW and State of Origin: try-scorer, goal-kicking and player-points projections, plus NRL & NRLW match markets (head-to-head, line, total) priced to surface value. Educational — not betting advice.

Round 18updated Thu 02 Jul 2026, 07:46AM AEST

Brisbane Broncos vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks

Player▼	Pos▼	Try %▼	xTries▼	xPoints▼	xPerf▼	xKick▼	SC▼
N.HynesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Halfback	21%	0.24	9.9	62.4	9.0	92
T.DuffyBrisbane Broncos	Five-Eighth	16%	0.17	9.8	34.1	9.1	48
R.MulitaloCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Wing	58%	0.86	3.5	37.8	0.0	67
D.MarinerBrisbane Broncos	Wing	47%	0.64	2.6	31.5	0.0	40
KL.IroCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Centre	42%	0.55	2.2	44.9	0.0	69
K.StaggsBrisbane Broncos	Centre	39%	0.49	2.1	37.8	0.1	58
S.KatoaCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Wing	40%	0.51	2.0	27.8	0.0	56
G.AndersonBrisbane Broncos	Wing	39%	0.49	2.0	31.5	0.0	53
W.KennedyCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Fullback	27%	0.31	1.3	35.8	0.0	55
J.RamienCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Centre	27%	0.31	1.2	36.6	0.0	51
B.TrindallCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Five-Eighth	21%	0.23	1.1	42.3	0.2	65
T.WiltonCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Second Row	24%	0.28	1.1	49.7	0.0	63
H.PerhamBrisbane Broncos	Fullback	22%	0.24	1.0	29.3	0.0	31
G.ShibasakiBrisbane Broncos	Centre	22%	0.25	1.0	31.5	0.0	35
B.BurnsCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Second Row	21%	0.24	1.0	45.9	0.0	71
B.PiakuraBrisbane Broncos	Second Row	16%	0.17	0.7	43.1	0.0	48
J.RikiBrisbane Broncos	Second Row	15%	0.16	0.7	47.5	0.0	68
B.HuntBrisbane Broncos	Halfback	13%	0.14	0.7	36.2	0.1	30
X.WillisonBrisbane Broncos	Lock	15%	0.16	0.6	51.2	0.0	62
S.TalakaiCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Interchange	13%	0.14	0.6	20.8	0.0	37
J.BerrellCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Hooker	12%	0.13	0.5	39.1	0.0	25
J.ArtharsBrisbane Broncos	Interchange	12%	0.12	0.5	16.7	0.0	42
T.HazeltonCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Prop	10%	0.11	0.4	37.6	0.0	38
J.ColquhounCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Prop	9%	0.09	0.4	43.0	0.0	57
V.SemuBrisbane Broncos	Prop	9%	0.09	0.4	29.2	0.0	25
C.McInnesCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Lock	8%	0.09	0.3	50.1	0.0	49
C.PaixBrisbane Broncos	Hooker	8%	0.08	0.3	41.7	0.0	39
B.TaltyBrisbane Broncos	Interchange	8%	0.08	0.3	28.9	0.0	42
O.KaufusiCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Interchange	7%	0.07	0.3	20.0	0.0	30
H.PuruCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Interchange	6%	0.07	0.3	23.8	0.0	36
J.HuntBrisbane Broncos	Interchange	6%	0.07	0.3	21.8	0.0	24
B.MozerBrisbane Broncos	Interchange	6%	0.06	0.3	22.5	0.0	18
T.Hau TapuhaCronulla-Sutherland Sharks	Interchange	6%	0.06	0.2	17.5	0.0	0
P.RikiBrisbane Broncos	Prop	5%	0.05	0.2	31.5	0.0	39

Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins

Player▼	Pos▼	Try %▼	xTries▼	xPoints▼	xPerf▼	xKick▼	SC▼
J.IsaakoDolphins	Wing	52%	0.74	12.0	57.0	9.0	83
S.SmithNewcastle Knights	Five-Eighth	15%	0.16	6.9	47.4	6.3	55
T.NaufahuDolphins	Wing	62%	0.95	3.8	32.1	0.0	75
J.AverilloDolphins	Centre	40%	0.50	2.1	34.3	0.1	72
D.YoungNewcastle Knights	Wing	40%	0.50	2.0	31.8	0.0	68
G.MarzhewNewcastle Knights	Wing	38%	0.48	1.9	33.7	0.0	72
T.FullerDolphins	Fullback	34%	0.41	1.7	38.5	0.0	63
H.FarnworthDolphins	Centre	33%	0.40	1.6	45.3	0.0	93
F.SharpeNewcastle Knights	Fullback	33%	0.39	1.6	42.9	0.0	60
D.LucasNewcastle Knights	Second Row	27%	0.31	1.2	52.2	0.0	79
C.LemueluDolphins	Second Row	24%	0.28	1.1	44.8	0.0	67
F.HuntNewcastle Knights	Centre	24%	0.28	1.1	33.9	0.0	48
D.BrownNewcastle Knights	Halfback	18%	0.20	0.9	45.3	0.0	59
B.SchneiderDolphins	Halfback	17%	0.18	0.8	33.4	0.1	42
D.GagaiNewcastle Knights	Centre	16%	0.17	0.8	37.1	0.1	63
J.McEwenNewcastle Knights	Second Row	17%	0.18	0.7	48.9	0.0	54
K.NikorimaDolphins	Five-Eighth	15%	0.16	0.7	33.3	0.1	58
K.FinefeuiakiDolphins	Second Row	15%	0.16	0.6	47.1	0.0	70
T.MooneyNewcastle Knights	Prop	12%	0.12	0.5	47.3	0.0	62
J.Marshall-KingDolphins	Hooker	11%	0.12	0.5	50.0	0.0	58
P.CrosslandNewcastle Knights	Hooker	9%	0.09	0.4	44.6	0.0	47
M.KnowlesDolphins	Lock	8%	0.09	0.4	45.6	0.0	45
H.GrahamNewcastle Knights	Interchange	8%	0.08	0.3	27.5	0.0	38
M.CrokerNewcastle Knights	Lock	8%	0.08	0.3	44.5	0.0	50
K.DonoghoeDolphins	Interchange	8%	0.08	0.3	32.4	0.0	46
B.PouniuDolphins	Interchange	7%	0.08	0.3	18.6	0.0	35
T.CantNewcastle Knights	Interchange	7%	0.07	0.3	26.6	0.0	26
F.MoloDolphins	Prop	7%	0.07	0.3	30.6	0.0	37
T.GilbertDolphins	Interchange	6%	0.07	0.3	37.6	0.0	50
F.KaufusiDolphins	Prop	6%	0.06	0.3	31.6	0.0	28
C.HopwoodNewcastle Knights	Interchange	6%	0.06	0.3	21.4	0.0	26
R.StoneDolphins	Interchange	6%	0.06	0.3	24.7	0.0	37
J.SaifitiNewcastle Knights	Prop	5%	0.05	0.2	37.7	0.0	52
T.FrizellNewcastle Knights	Interchange	5%	0.05	0.2	27.9	0.0	43

Parramatta Eels vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Player▼	Pos▼	Try %▼	xTries▼	xPoints▼	xPerf▼	xKick▼	SC▼
J.FogartyManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Halfback	12%	0.12	9.6	51.5	9.1	65
R.VolkmanParramatta Eels	Five-Eighth	18%	0.20	2.9	29.3	2.1	51
J.SaabManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Wing	50%	0.70	2.8	37.3	0.0	46
L.HopoateManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Wing	49%	0.68	2.7	35.8	0.0	64
T.TrbojevicManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Fullback	45%	0.59	2.4	39.6	0.0	71
B.KellyParramatta Eels	Wing	44%	0.57	2.3	31.2	0.0	61
J.Addo-CarrParramatta Eels	Wing	41%	0.52	2.1	30.8	0.0	45
R.GarrickManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Centre	35%	0.43	1.8	68.8	0.1	66
C.FaulaloManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Centre	31%	0.37	1.5	37.2	0.0	69
I.IongiParramatta Eels	Fullback	25%	0.28	1.1	33.7	0.0	66
B.TrbojevicManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Second Row	23%	0.26	1.0	46.6	0.0	73
J.WalshManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Five-Eighth	21%	0.24	1.0	37.1	0.1	51
J.SamraniParramatta Eels	Centre	20%	0.22	0.9	34.3	0.0	51
S.RussellParramatta Eels	Centre	17%	0.18	0.8	31.1	0.1	44
J.PezetParramatta Eels	Halfback	15%	0.16	0.7	28.5	0.1	43
T.Da SilvaParramatta Eels	Hooker	14%	0.15	0.7	45.9	0.1	41
K.TuilagiParramatta Eels	Second Row	15%	0.16	0.6	43.6	0.0	63
C.WaddellManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Second Row	14%	0.15	0.6	41.2	0.0	39
K.KautogaParramatta Eels	Second Row	13%	0.14	0.6	41.0	0.0	63
J.FeledyManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Interchange	13%	0.14	0.6	19.9	0.0	31
T.PasekaManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Prop	13%	0.14	0.5	40.4	0.0	59
K.HetheringtonManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Prop	9%	0.10	0.4	36.4	0.0	40
L.MorettiParramatta Eels	Prop	8%	0.09	0.3	31.0	0.0	38
J.SimpkinManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Hooker	8%	0.08	0.3	46.5	0.0	42
T.BrownParramatta Eels	Interchange	8%	0.08	0.3	17.5	0.0	29
D.WalkerParramatta Eels	Interchange	7%	0.08	0.3	26.9	0.0	39
J.WilliamsParramatta Eels	Prop	6%	0.06	0.3	47.8	0.0	62
S.LaiafiManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Interchange	6%	0.06	0.2	19.5	0.0	20
J.TrbojevicManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Lock	5%	0.05	0.2	41.2	0.0	43
S.TuivaitiParramatta Eels	Interchange	5%	0.05	0.2	27.4	0.0	36
E.BullemorManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Interchange	5%	0.05	0.2	25.4	0.0	38
H.EdwardsParramatta Eels	Interchange	5%	0.05	0.2	30.2	0.0	27
J.de BelinParramatta Eels	Lock	5%	0.05	0.2	38.8	0.0	34
N.BrownManly-Warringah Sea Eagles	Interchange	5%	0.05	0.2	26.3	0.0	35

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Penrith Panthers

Player▼	Pos▼	Try %▼	xTries▼	xPoints▼	xPerf▼	xKick▼	SC▼
L.SiegwaltSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Centre	18%	0.20	10.8	47.9	10.0	74
P.AlamotiPenrith Panthers	Centre	44%	0.58	5.0	43.3	2.7	58
T.JenkinsPenrith Panthers	Wing	54%	0.78	3.1	43.2	0.0	86
B.To'oPenrith Panthers	Wing	50%	0.69	2.8	43.0	0.0	64
D.JenningsSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Wing	37%	0.45	1.9	28.1	0.1	7
B.TalagiPenrith Panthers	Five-Eighth	36%	0.45	1.8	45.4	0.0	59
I.TagoPenrith Panthers	Centre	33%	0.40	1.6	42.6	0.0	50
D.EdwardsPenrith Panthers	Fullback	31%	0.38	1.6	48.6	0.1	78
E.KosiSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Wing	33%	0.40	1.6	27.3	0.0	33
J.GraySouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Fullback	27%	0.32	1.3	34.8	0.0	54
T.DuncanSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Second Row	22%	0.24	1.0	50.4	0.0	74
D.FifitaSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Second Row	19%	0.21	0.8	45.6	0.0	68
L.GarnerPenrith Panthers	Second Row	19%	0.20	0.8	48.1	0.0	45
C.WalkerSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Five-Eighth	17%	0.19	0.8	40.0	0.0	61
J.CoggerPenrith Panthers	Halfback	14%	0.15	0.7	35.7	0.1	24
S.SorensenPenrith Panthers	Second Row	16%	0.17	0.7	41.3	0.0	36
J.WightonSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Centre	16%	0.17	0.7	31.9	0.0	41
K.KoloamatangiSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Prop	14%	0.15	0.6	49.6	0.0	62
A.WardSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Halfback	11%	0.11	0.6	36.3	0.1	44
F.LussickPenrith Panthers	Hooker	12%	0.13	0.5	47.3	0.0	47
L.PateaPenrith Panthers	Interchange	12%	0.13	0.5	21.8	0.0	50
E.AitkenSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Interchange	10%	0.10	0.4	35.6	0.0	65
B.SmithSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Hooker	10%	0.10	0.4	36.1	0.0	69
L.HenryPenrith Panthers	Prop	9%	0.10	0.4	47.9	0.0	57
L.SmithPenrith Panthers	Lock	9%	0.09	0.4	47.7	0.0	52
B.ScottPenrith Panthers	Interchange	8%	0.09	0.4	17.4	0.0	16
M.LeotaPenrith Panthers	Prop	8%	0.08	0.3	36.8	0.0	48
J.RadelSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Interchange	7%	0.08	0.3	20.7	0.0	47
L.HubnerSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Lock	7%	0.07	0.3	42.4	0.0	41
B.PhillipsPenrith Panthers	Interchange	6%	0.06	0.3	26.0	0.0	36
J.HumphreysSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Interchange	6%	0.06	0.3	21.6	0.0	42
T.TatolaSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Prop	5%	0.05	0.2	35.8	0.0	43
L.Le BlancSouth Sydney Rabbitohs	Interchange	5%	0.05	0.2	22.0	0.0	32

Wests Tigers vs St George-Illawarra Dragons

Player▼	Pos▼	Try %▼	xTries▼	xPoints▼	xPerf▼	xKick▼	SC▼
J.MaddenWests Tigers	Five-Eighth	15%	0.16	7.6	55.8	7.0	44
V.HolmesSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Centre	42%	0.54	6.6	59.9	4.4	62
S.TuSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Wing	49%	0.67	2.7	34.9	0.0	59
T.SloanSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Wing	44%	0.58	2.3	35.3	0.0	36
J.SkeltonWests Tigers	Wing	40%	0.52	2.1	32.1	0.0	54
S.TuruvaWests Tigers	Wing	39%	0.50	2.0	33.8	0.0	52
J.BulaWests Tigers	Fullback	38%	0.48	1.9	40.0	0.0	59
C.GuthersonSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Fullback	32%	0.39	1.6	43.1	0.1	44
M.FeagaiSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Centre	33%	0.40	1.6	36.9	0.0	34
D.EganSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Second Row	31%	0.37	1.5	49.8	0.0	64
D.AtkinsonSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Five-Eighth	26%	0.30	1.3	43.0	0.1	36
H.MakasiniWests Tigers	Centre	26%	0.30	1.2	33.2	0.0	38
K.FlanaganSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Halfback	24%	0.27	1.2	42.5	0.1	31
L.LeiluaSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Interchange	25%	0.29	1.2	32.3	0.0	57
A.DoueihiWests Tigers	Halfback	21%	0.24	1.2	59.3	0.2	84
S.To'aWests Tigers	Centre	24%	0.27	1.1	32.6	0.0	46
Ta.MayWests Tigers	Prop	20%	0.22	1.0	43.2	0.1	88
S.FainuWests Tigers	Second Row	22%	0.24	1.0	48.8	0.0	74
J.LiddleSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Interchange	20%	0.23	0.9	27.3	0.0	30
H.StewartSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Second Row	19%	0.21	0.8	52.9	0.0	68
D.CookSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Hooker	17%	0.19	0.8	54.2	0.0	59
A.KoroisauWests Tigers	Hooker	14%	0.15	0.7	57.3	0.1	58
T.SukkarWests Tigers	Second Row	16%	0.17	0.7	39.2	0.0	61
L.FainuWests Tigers	Interchange	13%	0.14	0.6	22.8	0.0	18
E.GulerSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Interchange	10%	0.11	0.4	30.0	0.0	43
T.CouchmanSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Prop	10%	0.10	0.4	51.8	0.0	73
J.KerrSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Interchange	9%	0.09	0.4	22.4	0.0	30
L.Pasifiki TongaSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Prop	8%	0.08	0.3	37.7	0.0	46
A.SeyfarthWests Tigers	Interchange	8%	0.08	0.3	31.6	0.0	39
R.CouchmanSt George-Illawarra Dragons	Lock	7%	0.07	0.3	54.5	0.0	72
F.PoleWests Tigers	Prop	7%	0.07	0.3	43.1	0.0	46
J.LanyonWests Tigers	Interchange	7%	0.07	0.3	30.3	0.0	24
A.TwalWests Tigers	Lock	5%	0.05	0.2	55.2	0.0	85
B.AfoaWests Tigers	Interchange	4%	0.04	0.2	27.4	0.0	38