MarketMoverA statistical rugby-league model — NRL, NRLW and State of Origin: try-scorer, goal-kicking and player-points projections, plus NRL & NRLW match markets (head-to-head, line, total) priced to surface value. Educational — not betting advice.
Round 18updated Thu 02 Jul 2026, 07:46AM AEST
Model-fair head-to-head, line and total prices from the match-outcome model (margin-informed Elo + form). These are the model's own fair odds — live bookmaker prices and value are layered in when available.
| Match | Margin | Head to head (fair) | Line | Total | O / U (fair) | Best edge (live books) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Penrith Panthers 82% South Sydney Rabbitohs 18% | Panthers by 15.6 | 1.22 / 5.57 book 1.58 / 2.39 | Panthers -15.5 | 45.0 | 2.07 / 2.05 | Panthers -4.5 @1.95 (pointsbet) +44.9% |
St George-Illawarra Dragons 30% Wests Tigers 70% | Tigers by 9.0 | 3.35 / 1.43 book 2.40 / 1.59 | Dragons +9.0 | 48.0 | 2.06 / 2.06 | Tigers -4.5 @1.97 (sportsbet) +19.1% |
Brisbane Broncos 37% Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 63% | Sharks by 5.6 | 2.70 / 1.59 book 2.70 / 1.45 | Broncos +5.5 | 46.5 | 2.02 / 1.98 | Under 48.5 @1.88 (pointsbet) +6.1% |
Parramatta Eels 32% Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 68% | Eagles by 8.0 | 3.14 / 1.47 book 3.10 / 1.36 | Eels +8.0 | 44.5 | 2.01 / 1.99 | Under 49.5 @1.95 (pointsbet) +26.1% |
Newcastle Knights 36% Dolphins 64% | Dolphins by 5.9 | 2.75 / 1.57 book 1.96 / 1.87 | Knights +6.0 | 46.5 | 2.02 / 1.98 | Dolphins H2H @1.87 (sportsbet) +18.9% |
Note: match totals carry little predictable signal in both comps (the model barely beats the league-average total), so over/under prices sit near even money by design. Head-to-head and line are the stronger markets.