A statistical rugby-league model — NRL, NRLW and State of Origin: try-scorer, goal-kicking and player-points projections, plus NRL & NRLW match markets (head-to-head, line, total) priced to surface value. Educational — not betting advice.
Round 21updated Thu 23 Jul 2026, 05:51PM AEST
Model-fair head-to-head, line and total prices from the match-outcome model (margin-informed Elo + form). These are the model's own fair odds — live bookmaker prices and value are layered in when available.
| Match | Margin | Head to head (fair) | Line | Total | O / U (fair) | Best edge (live books) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Parramatta Eels 18% Penrith Panthers 83% | Panthers by 15.9 | 5.72 / 1.21 book 5.00 / 1.19 | Eels +16.0 | 44.5 | 2.00 / 2.00 | Panthers -14.5 @1.96 (sportsbet) +4.4% |
Newcastle Knights 41% Sydney Roosters 59% | Roosters by 3.9 | 2.44 / 1.69 book 2.30 / 1.64 | Knights +4.0 | 44.5 | 1.98 / 2.02 | Under 46.5 @1.95 (pointsbet) +2.1% |
South Sydney Rabbitohs 52% Melbourne Storm 48% | Rabbitohs by 0.8 | 1.93 / 2.08 book 2.04 / 1.81 | Rabbitohs -1.0 | 45.5 | 1.99 / 2.01 | Rabbitohs H2H @2.04 (sportsbet) +5.8% |
Canberra Raiders 53% Wests Tigers 47% | Raiders by 1.3 | 1.89 / 2.13 book 1.24 / 4.60 | Raiders -1.5 | 47.0 | 2.05 / 2.07 | Tigers H2H @4.60 (sportsbet) +116.0% |
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 34% Warriors 66% | Warriors by 6.9 | 2.92 / 1.52 book 2.55 / 1.56 | Bulldogs +7.0 | 44.5 | 1.99 / 2.01 | Warriors -4.5 @1.97 (sportsbet) +9.6% |
North Queensland Cowboys 61% Brisbane Broncos 39% | Cowboys by 4.7 | 1.64 / 2.56 book 2.25 / 1.70 | Cowboys -4.5 | 47.0 | 2.06 / 2.06 | Cowboys H2H @2.25 (pointsbet) +37.0% |
St George-Illawarra Dragons 47% Gold Coast Titans 53% | Titans by 1.2 | 2.12 / 1.89 book 1.87 / 1.98 | Dragons +1.0 | 46.0 | 2.09 / 2.04 | Titans +0.5 @1.96 (sportsbet) +5.8% |
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 55% Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 45% | Eagles by 2.0 | 1.83 / 2.21 book 2.30 / 1.64 | Eagles -2.0 | 44.5 | 2.01 / 1.99 | Eagles H2H @2.30 (ladbrokes) +25.8% |
Note: match totals carry little predictable signal in both comps (the model barely beats the league-average total), so over/under prices sit near even money by design. Head-to-head and line are the stronger markets.